A 43% plurality of respondents additionally indicated being considering voting for a 3rd celebration or impartial candidate (not Democratic or Republican) within the subsequent presidential election.
- Sure: 43%
- No: 30%
- Uncertain: 27%
The findings are notably attention-grabbing in gentle of the recent uptick in people disaffiliating from the Republican celebration, although the outcomes do little to make clear the place precisely the disenchantment with the two-party system is emanating from, whether or not it is a new phenomenon, and whether or not curiosity has ticked up lately amongst sure voters extra so than others.
Maybe not unexpectedly, Independents are probably the most supportive cohort of including extra events. This is the affiliation breakdown of the 48% of respondents who stated extra events are wanted:
- Independents: 60%
- Democrat: 48%
- Republicans: 36%
Likewise, Independents have been the least prone to say having simply two events was “positive” at 13%, whereas 29% of Democrats and 27% of Republicans stated the established order was okay.
However when it got here to expressing curiosity in doubtlessly voting for a third-party presidential candidate, curiosity ticked down significantly amongst Democrats and up a bit amongst Republicans, whereas Independents continued to indicate the strongest curiosity. This is the breakdown when folks have been requested if they might be “considering voting for a 3rd celebration or impartial candidate (not Democratic or Republican) within the subsequent presidential election.”
- Independents: 66%
- Republican: 41%
- Democrat: 25%
The 23-point hole between Democrats who assume one other celebration is required and those that would truly contemplate voting for a third-party presidential candidate subsequent cycle may mirror the truth that Democratic voters stay keenly conscious of the potential penalties of failing to stay loyal to the highest of the ticket.
What’s maybe extra mysterious is which Republicans are expressing a comparatively excessive curiosity for a third-party candidate—is it extra so the old-guard Romney Republicans, the Trumpers who are likely to dislike institution Republicans, or a wholesome mixture of each?
Lastly, the excessive curiosity amongst Independents suggests any third-party candidacy is prone to siphon votes from each a Democratic and Republican presidential candidate alike. However it’s unimaginable to have any thought whether or not a third-party candidate would lure extra Democratic leaners or Republican leaners away. That would absolutely rely on the candidates operating and a clearer understanding of the political leanings of the rising quantity of people that now establish as impartial. In brief, it’s sophisticated.